Headset: US Cannabis Sales to Reach $28 Billion in 2022


Cannabis data and analytics company Headset predicts that U.S. cannabis sales will eclipse $28 billion next year.

According to the firm, which this week announced the launch of a comprehensive long-term forecast for the U.S. and Canadian markets, U.S. cannabis sales are expected to grow around 24% in each of the next two years.

In 2021, Headset expects U.S. cannabis sales to reach $22.7 billion, up from $18.5 billion last year.

The firm’s estimates include New York, New Jersey, and Arizona, which recently legalized adult-use cannabis. Of those three states, only dispensaries in Arizona are currently selling recreational marijuana.

Meanwhile, in Canada, sales are expected to grow 54.6% and reach $4 billion this year. In 2022, Canadian cannabis sales could grow 32% and hit $5.3 billion, the company said.

Headset’s forecasts include 13 Canadian provinces and 36 U.S. states and jurisdictions, including Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington, where it currently collects data.

Drilling down, Headset said it expects U.S. sales of marijuana flower to approach $15 billion in 2022, compared to $3 billion in Canada. Vapes, concentrates, edibles and pre-rolls are the next largest categories.

Combined, all five categories will account for nearly 96% of cannabis sales in 2022, with beverages, capsules, topicals, and tinctures competing for the remaining 4%.

Headset said it plans to update its long-term market forecast — which looks out as far as 24 months — on a quarterly basis. An updated report is expected to hit in July.

Download the full report on the Headset website.

Additional insights are included in the news release below.

SEATTLE — Headset, the leading provider of data and analytics to the cannabis industry, announced today the launch of a long-term forecast for the U.S. and Canadian markets with category and top-level data to be updated at the end of each quarter. The comprehensive forecasts provide legal cannabis market participants and observers with valuable insights into the world's largest and fastest-growing cannabis markets.

The U.S. and Canada market forecasts will encompass all jurisdictions with any level of legalization across recreational and medical markets. The data will always incorporate the previous, current and following calendar years and be presented in aggregate for each calendar year. With Headset's new methodology, forecasts will cover at least five quarters (15 months) and at most eight quarters (24 months).

To date, key insights from the Overall Market View reveal:

  • Both the U.S. and Canada markets are forecast to grow through 2021 and into 2022
  • Canadian cannabis sales will reach $4B this year, significantly lower than the U.S. market's projected $23B in annual sales
  • Canada's cannabis market is expected to grow twice as fast as the U.S. market between 2020 and 2021 and almost three times faster from 2021 to 2022

Headset's category market view focuses on each country separately, providing insights into the individual market structures and predictions for how trends in each category might develop going forward. All forecasts are dependent on current levels of legalization and regulations, which are subject to change. 

To date, key insights from the Category Market View reveal:

  • In the U.S., flower accounts for a majority of total annual sales, reaching roughly $11B in 2021 with projected growth to $12B in 2022
  • Although flower is the most popular product category in both markets, vapor pens, edibles and concentrates hold more market share in the U.S. than they do in Canada across 2020, 2021 and 2022
  • In both markets, concentrates and edibles are estimated to have slightly larger market shares in 2022 at the expense of flower and pre-rolls
  • Between 2020 and 2021, flower represented 50% of the total sales volume growth in the U.S. but will contribute less than 40% from 2021 to 2022. 
  • Flower share in the Canadian market will fall slightly in 2021, from 57.6% in 2020 to 54.2%, but remain stable in 2022.
  • Pre-roll sales will contribute approximately 20% to Canada's total sales volume growth in 2022 for a 2% increase from the prior year

To download the full report, visit https://www.headset.io/industry-reports/cannabis-market-projections-for-us-canada-april-2021 

About Headset:

Headset is a data analytics company in the cannabis industry with a mission to help businesses make better-informed decisions through data. Headset focuses on collecting and analyzing consumer transaction information. Headset's models and dashboards help cannabis retailers better optimize their day-to-day operations. In addition, product manufacturers, processors and distributors leverage the aggregated, standardized and anonymized receipt-level sales data in real-time to identify trends and opportunities, stay competitive and collaborate with retail customers. Learn more at https://www.headset.io/.

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